Kakita Sojiro
Crane Clan Global Mod ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star.png) ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star.png)
When you die, will you be remembered, or will you be just another strand in the tapestry?
Posts: 900
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Post by Kakita Sojiro on Oct 6, 2011 19:44:14 GMT -5
On a strategic level, even if the Dragon "trap" themselves between Kaneka and the Lion, It's not as the Toturi forces will be able to focus solely on destroying the Dragon, while the Hantei sit around and just watch. With Toshi Ranbo now being a non-entity tactically, This frees up the crane (largely unhurt by losing Toshi Ranbo according to Jay) and the Phoenix to move as they please, either to assault Kaneka directly or to move to support the Dragon. The Scorpion also haven't made their move yet, and the Emerald Champion, while still needing to maintain a garrison at Permission City, also still has most of his forces intact (Permission City was easily taken, IE not a lot of casualties on the Hantei front). This is also not taking into account the Badger army or the other minor clans, who in spite of the Minor Clan Alliance, anr not all doing the same thing. Meanwhile, the Lion army took a harsh pounding at Permission city and also suffered some substantial losses taking Toshi Ranbo, meaning their numbers should be diminished accordingly. They are currently committed to their military actions, unlike the Phoenix, Crane, and Scorpion armies. Likewise, the Unicorn is also committed to moving with Kaneka, and the Crab now have to deal with the Spider attacking the wall. Of the various Traitor/Rebel forces, the only army that is not already committed to some action (and therefore basically stuck doing what they are doing) would be the Mantis, while most of the smaller Hantei forces are free to choose when and where to strike, obviously excluding the Dragon at the moment, who are committed to Swift Sword (even if it is a feint).
In a nutshell, the rebels have a numbers advantage, but not as big of one as some of them think they do. Meanwhile, the Hantei forces have the ability to choose exactly when and where to strike right now, even if they do have smaller numbers. Also, from what I can see, the Traitor/Rebel forces simply don't have the resources to maintain the food they need for that many soldiers. Frankly, at the moment the Crane may be having similar issues, but not nearly to the degree that the Lion do. The Unicorn can barely feed themselves without importing food under ideal conditions for them, and a civil war where the main providers of food are their enemies is hardly ideal. The mantis can't help them there, either - you can't sail a ship over land. The crab, even though they are engaged on multiple fronts, are fine as far as food goes between their actual land resources and possible assistance from the Mantis - IF THE MANTIS HAVE FOOD TO SELL/SUPPLY. The Mantis islands by themselves are small, but we are talking about a clan that excels in the merchant aspect of life.
So the Hantei forces are outnumbered, and the Kaneka forces are getting hungry. The Hantei forces have many options available to them strategically, while the Kaneka forces are currently engaged in known military maneuvers.
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Post by Utaku Kasumi on Oct 7, 2011 1:35:26 GMT -5
*peeks in, reads 3 pages and nods* This is what I like. A debate with arguments, citations and so on. Boohoo... no song for you today, but go on... I will be watching you closely <3
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Kitsuki Yuushahime
Dragon Clan
This person sometimes posts things that are tl;dr
Courtier Magistrate Ambassador Daimyo
Posts: 1,140
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Post by Kitsuki Yuushahime on Oct 7, 2011 2:21:35 GMT -5
This is actually very interesting and insightful.
I will add that there is a mention in Masters of War or the latest Emerald Empire that states the Lion have something like 25k-33k samurai serving in the Imperial Legions. I think it suggested the Lion could have recouped all their losses during the war with the Dragon and Unicorn if they recalled these troops but that they didn't want to take this option. However, that would be another 25-33k samurai the Lion do not have access to during this conflict. Of course, each other Clan would not have their full number of samurai available either as some would be with the Legions or otherwise away.
If we say, hypothetically, a Clan has 100K samurai - maybe 66% will be bushi if they are a militant Clan. From that, some will be in the Legions. Others will be in other lands as yojimbo to courtiers and the like. So perhaps only 50% would be available to actually fight in their armies and from that, many would have to be garrison forces. Perhaps as many as half again. So I think it is realistic to estimate for every 100K samurai only 25K are actually useful as an offensive force. I think "samurai" includes ji-samurai too but not ashigaru and others that would join an army. Still, having the three primary military clans on Toturi's side along with his own veteran troops (many of the Emerald Champion's troops are conscripts and few are war veterans like the yobanjin survivors would be) is something to consider.
That said, this is Rokugan. It is like 300. Just because you are horribly outnumbered does not mean you will lose. Lion armies have canonically fought off forces twice their size. They have also been defeated by forces half their size. The Hantei side is not horribly outnumbered - it is outnumbered in terms of troops but a) I think it has more clicks and b) As stated, having more troops is an advantage and not a guarantee. Let's not highlight it too much. It does not mean Hantei's side is doomed or anything. That would be completely false. Also I think Hantei's side has greater access to resources and shugenja/magic. That is something to consider too.
That said, I do not think the logistics issues some of you are raising are that valid. I think the Lion would be able to manage. They can generally feed their armies well enough for the most part, except when they become too bloated. Only after a decent amount of time does a food shortage occur due to fighting with clans that usually trade them food. I am not sure the Scorpion would stop trading... they are too dishonourable to ignore a profit. The Mantis could trade a bit but it would be difficult due to lack of access. The Lion would not really lose anything from being unable to trade with the Dragon or Phoenix as neither of them trade much food to the Lion normally. The big loss would be lack of food from the Crane. Of course, this forgets one thing - the Lion can and would take food during their attacks. It is not yet harvest season but it soon will be. The Lion would be able to take food from the areas they have conqured and rightly so as that would be their right now that it is "their territory". Furthermore, with the dead samurai from fighting the yobanjin, losing Permission City and gaining the Capital - there would be less mouths to feed. Additionally, those troops serving in the Imperial Legions or elsewhere in the Empire would not need to be fed directly by the Lion. I do imagine some Imperial troops aren't with the Emerald Champion and are instead protecting the Empire's borders, attacking bandits and so on.
I think the Crab would struggle with food usually but with help from the Mantis and the sacking of Crane territories they should have enough to get by. I think the Unicorn would also be okay. I think this situation would end in Winter though - if armies do not have food stocked up then if they are in enemy territory then they are in trouble. Logistics would be impossible effectively then. You can feed your own troops in your own territory from the harvest but feeding them in enemy territory would be frightfully hard due to the difficulty of transporting food. I think the Dragon forces and Phoenix forces and possibly the Crane and Scorpion will have to be wary of this when they launch their counter attack - it is coming up to autumn now. Perhaps the harvest has actually started. But it will not be long before winter and then snow hit.
Sojiro - I will say that taking Swift Sword Castle should be harder than taking Permission City due to the fact that it is a military fortification with a larger standing army than Permission City had - plus one was a city and not completely designed for repulsing a besieging army. The Lion fortifications are not as great as those of the Crab but they are designed well. Plus the Lion would best know their own territory.
I am also not sure the Crane are freed up. They must have taken some losses during the Capital Siege as most of their troops were there and I do not imagine even an organised withdrawel would go that well when surrounded by angry Lion. If you think the Lion took losses then almost certainly the Crane took more losses. All of the War books including the latest stuff in Emerald Empire for way of the warlord suggest the loser takes more losses during a battle. Also, they have two territories under attack and would have to consider defending those. If they are willing to neglect them, then I would agree that whatever troops they have remaining (which could well be the majority but not as many as they started with) would now be able to act at will. The same certainly goes for the Phoenix and Dragon as you have stated. The Toturi side made the first move thanks to the Lion and it is now the turn of the Hantei side to respond and counter attack. It will then be Kaneka's turn to act and so on...
Still, freedom to attack does not translate to complete freedom. The reality is if they leave Toturi's army to march around and do whatever and take the Capital and they do not defend the Crane southern territories then no matter what they do the Hantei side will lose a war of attrition. They will lose morale from the loss of the capital, Toturi crowning themselves there and the loss of good farming land in Crane territory. If they took over the Mantis lands it would still be a loss. If they all attacked the Lion and crippled them, it would still slowly be a loss. This is my opinion of course but I think there are only a few realistic choices the Hantei side can take - aim at retaking the capital/fight off the Crane invaders/Hurt the Lion more while holding on to what Hantei's side has/try and strike at Toturi himself to take his army or better still him out of the war and thus ending it. Attacking the Crab or marching into Unicorn lands would certainly cause casualties but I don't think it would win the war. Not with the centre taken by Toturi's side, giving them the ability to attack anyone they want - the Dragon, Phoenix, Crane or Imperial forces. Or the Scorpion if they so wished. Eventually the Hantei side would be relegated to the edges of the Empire and it would be a slow war of attrition the Toturi side would probably win. I think they therefore have to strike carefully. I agree with you that they have the ability to choose where to strike next but... I do not think they have that many choices basically.
Plus, if the southern Crane forces are lost, the Mantis would be free to supply pretty much the whole Toturi side and the lost Crane provinces will give the Toturi side an excellent harvest.
Thoughts?
I think this next stage of the war will be key. In truth though I am getting a little tired of it and hope something decisive happens soon or I can see this back and forth going on for a few years ^^;
Perhaps some big baddie can show up to unite the Empire or one of the two leaders will be struck by lightning or perhaps even both at the same time. Something like that needs to happen. I would prefer the player base to be more united again. Otherwise Winter Court is going to be hella awkward. Plus there will probably be two of them >_>
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Kakita Sojiro
Crane Clan Global Mod ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star.png) ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star.png)
When you die, will you be remembered, or will you be just another strand in the tapestry?
Posts: 900
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Post by Kakita Sojiro on Oct 7, 2011 3:49:14 GMT -5
I would be far more inclined to agree with you about the Crane forces taking losses at Toshi Ranbo if it wasn't for what Jay had posted. Why did he post that? I'm not entirely sure, but there are a few possibilities. First off, conventional strategic teachings state that it takes 10 times the amount of attacking soldiers to siege and capture a city that the defenders have there. Now, we are talking about the Lion, and they certainly know their way around a war, but numerically it is highly unlikely for any defending force to lose the same, or even more, soldiers than their attackers during a siege. That's just how sieges work. Secondly, the Crane knew for awhile that holding Toshi Ranbo was unlikely, if not outright impossible. They had made arrangements to evacuate the city once the booby-trapped western gate fell (Ok, exploded) and the Lion army gained access to the camp area. Third, the Crane were supported by the Seppun forces, therefore the Seppun shared in the losses. As far as logistics go, the Lion haven't actually taken any Crane territories. So far, only the Crab have - which is why their food supply will be fine, and why I think the Crane may be having issues. I don't think either the Unicorn or the Lion would have the neccessary harvest to support their armies, even with diminished numbers. As I stated, under the best of circumstances they still rely on the Crane for food, and I can guarantee you the Crane aren't trading with either nation right now ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/smiley.png) As far as attack options go - you are right, to a point. The Hantei's effective options are certainly limited at the moment, but they are not completely without choices. Attacking the Unicorn lands is utterly useless and will accomplish nothing. Likewise, taking Lion and Crab lands would be equally pointless, and although seizing Mantis lands would give more control over the seas, actually doing so would be quite the endeavor. (Where are they getting the ships they need to pull that off?) The answer lies in Ulysses S. Grant's strategies - crush your enemy's armies, forget about their lands, because you can come back for those later. The Hantei forces are in a supremely good position to strike the Toturi forces en masse, if they so choose. There is no real way (at least not yet) to tell where they will be attacking, which means that preparing for that attack will require constant vigilance on the part of the entire Toturi force - and that is draining on an army, especially an army in foreign lands. Last but not least, we have the wild cards - the Dragonfly, Badger, and Spider clans. I have no idea what they will be doing, but it is sure to have a positive effect on the Hantei in some fashion. Oh, and if I hear one more thing about Kaneka's forces magically teleporting to a new location overnight, I am going to be seriously irate. That crap has to stop.
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Post by Mirumoto Shigekazu on Oct 7, 2011 7:08:43 GMT -5
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Shosuro Aroru
Scorpion Clan
Scorpion Clan Ninja * Duelist
Posts: 625
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Post by Shosuro Aroru on Oct 7, 2011 9:42:54 GMT -5
...I disagree with your maps. It's simply your interpretation of how the armies moved with some unrealistic ideas. The Lion army stationed in the castle of swift sword would have stayed there. One of the Lion Armies would have been at Permission City. You can imagine two armies at Toshi Ronbo if you want, but considering it was just one crane army then the very slight win the lion achieved is even more of a testament to the crane. The fact of the matter is this is a click game, we can't really justify how things turn out based on numbers from the rpg.
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Bayushi Hisa
Scorpion Clan
Samurai * Courtier * Dark Paragon of Will * Loyal
Posts: 479
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Post by Bayushi Hisa on Oct 7, 2011 10:06:38 GMT -5
For anyone interested (and I am sure Jay will post it soon), the crab have taken lonely shore and there are new actions there.
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Post by Mirumoto Shigekazu on Oct 7, 2011 10:07:19 GMT -5
Yes, it is my interpretation on moves but starting positions are based on info from Rulebooks on which Emerald Empire is based. You presented no reason why my interpretation is wrong.
1. There were no army at the Castle of Swift Sword. There were army at Kyuden Ikoma which marched north to meet Dragon Army.
2. If there were full Lion army at Permission City then why Hantei side had twice more missions than Toturi? Similar situation is at Lonely Shore City and Seawatch Castle when only Crane Army was beaten at Toshi Ranbo and was unable to join neither battle. Look at the map - Toshi Ranbo is close to the Permission City, so some troops may help defend the City but Toshi Ranbo is far from southern Crane provinces and sending any reinforcements was impossible.
3. Jay said course of action would depend on players decisions where send an army, number of clicks and difference of power, so why you said we cannot justify with RPG numbers? What do you propose then?
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Akodo Keisuke
Lion Clan Mod ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star.png)
Lion Clan Regent ?Samurai ?Daimyo ?First Among Generals ?Tactician ?Commander ?Loyal
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Post by Akodo Keisuke on Oct 7, 2011 10:14:17 GMT -5
Loot the City is no longer an action at Toshi Ranbo. ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/smiley.png)
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Post by Mirumoto Shigekazu on Oct 7, 2011 10:16:21 GMT -5
But the same action appeared at Lonely Shore City. Exactly the same, even number of performed click is the same ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/smiley.png)
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Akodo Keisuke
Lion Clan Mod ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star.png)
Lion Clan Regent ?Samurai ?Daimyo ?First Among Generals ?Tactician ?Commander ?Loyal
Posts: 704
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Post by Akodo Keisuke on Oct 7, 2011 10:22:02 GMT -5
I hope the loot Toshi Ranbo action disappearing is a result of Jay watching the RP events. Almost all of the active Lion players in the private chambers agreed not to loot the city.
I hope the next news update, will explain why the action was removed?
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Post by Mirumoto Asano on Oct 7, 2011 10:30:58 GMT -5
According to 4th ed Emerald Empire: traditional legion is about 750 soldiers, an army consists of 48 legions, so its about 36.000 soldiers
Crab: have 4 standing armies, and fifth at close to full strength, two of these are continually deployed along the Wall, third is divided along major fortifications (like Razor of the Dawn Castle, Shiro Kuni, Kyuden Hida, etc), fourth army is distributed throughout the land and fifth is clan reserve, so if they mobilized reserves against Crane, they have 70.000 soldiers active in the war Crane: 2 armies - 72.000 Dragon: 2 armies - 72.000 Lion: 4 armies - 144.000 Mantis: 36.000 Phoenix: 1 army - 36.000 Scorpion: 1 army - 36.000 Unicorn: 3 armies: Baraughar - 10.000 Junghar - "bears closest resemblance to traditional model"- so I assume - 36.000, but they purpose is to defend Unicorn provinces Khol - "at its strongest it exceeds 75.000" - so lets go with 75.000 so in total they have about 85.000 active soldiers in the war Shadowlands: "Daigotsu field something approximating a Rokugani army in numbers, possibly more" so say 36.000 Imperial Legions: 10 legions, each at least 10.000 samurai(!!!yes samurai, not soldiers), with ashigaru and other auxiliaries summoned in a crisis - 20.000 or more so in total - 100.000 to 200.000 soldiers, but individual legion commander decides if he take orders from Emerald Champion or Shogun
Of course every Clan have special units, and different number of unit types, but its obvious.
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Tamori Manji
Dragon Clan Mod ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star.png)
Demon Fox (妖狐)
?Dragon Clan ?Hatamoto ?Fire ?Void ?Yamabushi ?Tattoed ?Nonhuman
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Post by Tamori Manji on Oct 7, 2011 10:35:33 GMT -5
I hope the loot Toshi Ranbo action disappearing is a result of Jay watching the RP events. Almost all of the active Lion players in the private chambers agreed not to loot the city. I hope the next news update, will explain why the action was removed? Keisuke, although I do agree that its very nice and interesting when Jay gets ideas from the RP threads, I do hope this was not the case. Solely because most of our player base doesn't frequent the boards (or, at least, doesn't RP in them) and this case specifically, looting or trying to establish a "new rule" in TR (same for PC), should be mostly based on the votes of the whole player base, not the RP of a few.
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Post by Mirumoto Shigekazu on Oct 7, 2011 10:36:15 GMT -5
Asano-san, from where exactly these informations come from? Are there any informations on dislocation of other armies than Crab?
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Post by Mirumoto Asano on Oct 7, 2011 10:44:05 GMT -5
It comes from 4th edition supplement "Emerald Empire" , chapter 10: War There's no information about where exactly other armies are located - just which families and special units they consist of
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